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India-Bangladesh Ties: Why New Delhi Will Keep Fingers Crossed

Reports suggest that Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is likely to take charge of an interim government in Bangladesh following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday. However, India will tend to keep its fingers crossed as far as ties with Bangladesh are concerned if comments shared by Bangladeshi experts with ETV Bharat are to go by.

Bangladesh crisis Sheikh Hasina resignation Muhammad Yunus interim government
File photo of Muhammed Yunus (AP)

By Aroonim Bhuyan

Published : Aug 6, 2024, 8:29 PM IST

New Delhi: With reports suggesting that Muhammad Yunus has accepted requests to act as the chief advisor of an interim government in Bangladesh following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina following a dramatic series of developments on Monday, India will heave a sigh of relief, albeit for a short time.

An economist and banker by profession, Yunus was seen as a threat by the Hasina dispensation after he reportedly professed an interest in entering politics way back in 2007 when an interim government was in charge ahead of a parliamentary election. The election eventually saw Hasina coming back to power.

Though Yunus, founder of the Grameen Bank, eventually decided not to foray into politics, there was a lasting suspicion within the Hasina administration about his intentions in Bangladesh politics. His influence and support from the international community posed a challenge to the political establishment.

The Grameen Bank is a highly influential institution in Bangladesh, providing financial services to millions of poor individuals. The government, under Hasina, sought greater control over the bank, which led to conflicts with Yunus. In 2011, Yunus was removed from his position as managing director of Grameen Bank on the grounds that he had exceeded the mandatory retirement age. This move was widely seen as politically motivated and aimed at diminishing his influence.

The government accused Yunus of financial mismanagement and diversion of funds, although these claims were largely discredited by international investigations. Nonetheless, these accusations were used to tarnish his reputation. Yunus and his associates faced numerous legal challenges and regulatory pressures, including investigations by the National Board of Revenue and the Anti-Corruption Commission. These actions were perceived as attempts to intimidate and discredit him.

Yunus's persecution attracted significant international attention and criticism. Prominent global figures, including former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Nobel laureates, have voiced their support for Yunus, which further strained his relationship with the Hasina dispensation.

The government's actions against Yunus also reflect a broader trend of restricting civil society organisations and limiting their influence. Grameen Bank's independent stature and Yunus's global connections were viewed as challenges to state authority.

The persecution of Yunus strained Bangladesh's diplomatic relations with several Western countries and international organisations. The backlash from the global community highlighted the broader implications of the government's actions on Bangladesh's international standing. However, despite all this, Yunus has had a multifaceted relationship with India. His influence and interactions span various sectors, including economic development, social entrepreneurship, and education.

"People in Bangladesh love Yunus," Bangladeshi academic and social activist Sharin Shajahan Naomi told ETV Bharat. "They will love a new face in power. If Yunus takes charge, India and Russia will not mind. He is the most transparent person as of now. He is liked by all superpowers."

After Hasina fled from Dhaka on Monday, Yunus was quoted as saying that he wanted to continue Bangladesh's good relationship with India as both countries are neighbours.

Yunus's innovative approach to microfinance has had a significant impact on India’s approach to poverty alleviation. His model of providing small loans to the poor, particularly women, without requiring collateral, inspired numerous microfinance institutions (MFIs) across India.

Organisations such as SKS Microfinance (now Bharat Financial Inclusion Limited) and Bandhan Bank drew heavily from Yunus's principles. These institutions have contributed to financial inclusion for millions of low-income individuals in India.

According to Shahadat Hossain, a Bangladeshi research scholar in the Department of International Relations of South Asian University, New Delhi, though Hasina's ouster has come as a shock to New Delhi, relations between India and Bangladesh will remain fine as long as Yunus is in charge.

"Fresh elections in Bangladesh will take time," Hossain said. "At least for the next three to six months, India-Bangladesh relations will not see any change. Maybe a new ambassador will be posted in New Delhi who will come with a fresh agenda."

However, Naomi sounded a note of caution saying that Yunus taking charge will depend on some conditions."The Islamist factions that were instrumental in the removal of Hasina might not like him," she said. "That is because his micro-finance schemes help rural women."

Naomi said that an interim government is unlikely to be formed soon as there has been a reshuffle within the army ranks of the country. According to a report in the Daily Messenger news website, the Bangladesh Army has made changes to some of its top-level positions following Monday's upheaval.

"In a major reshuffle in the top level of Bangladesh Army, Maj Gen.Ziaul Ahsan has been relieved from his post while Lt Gen M Saiful Islam was transferred to the Foreign Ministry," the report stated citing a press release issued by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR).

"Besides, Lt Gen Md Saiful Alam has been assigned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lt Gen Md Mojibur Rahman has been appointed GOC Army Training and Doctrine Command, Lt Gen Ahmad Tabrez Shams Chowdhury has been appointed as Quartermaster General of the Army, Lt Gen Mizanur Shamim has been appointed as the Chief of General Staff of the Army, Lt Gen Mohammad Shaheenul Haque as Commandant NDC and Maj Gen ASM Ridwanur Rahman as Director General of National Telecommunication Monitoring Centre (NTMC)."

So, till the time an interim government, presumably headed by Yunus, sees the light of the day, New Delhi will keep its fingers crossed as far as ties with Dhaka are concerned.

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