New Delhi:External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar is set to embark on a visit to Pakistan to participate in the heads of government meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Islamabad on October 15-16, marking a significant moment in India-Pakistan relations.
This will be the first visit by an Indian Foreign Minister to Pakistan after a gap of nine years. The last visit was by the then-EAM Sushma Swaraj in early December 2015 for the Heart of Asia Conference on Afghanistan. Jaishankar, who was then India’s foreign secretary, had accompanied EAM Sushma Swaraj to this conference.
The visit by Jaishankar comes at a crucial time when the relations between India and Pakistan are at an extreme low. As the world watches the visit closely, what remains to be seen is will the multilateral platform of SCO open new doors in India-Pakistan relations. Is it the right decision to send an Indian minister to Islamabad for SCO? What message does it send out?
A few foreign policy experts spoke to ETV Bharat. India’s former Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar said, "India's decision to ensure the participation of the Indian delegation in the Heads of Government (HOG) Meeting in Islamabad this October reflects our commitment to fostering positive and productive relationships within the SCO. By sending the EAM to lead the delegation, India is actively demonstrating its proactive approach to strengthening its engagement with the SCO and building constructive partnerships within the organisation."
He noted that it needs to be realised that the ball is in Pakistan’s court. “Pakistan had taken the initiative to call back its ambassador from India and expel the Indian ambassador in the wake of the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. Moreover, Pakistan is guilty of fomenting terror against India. The only condition that India has imposed on starting a dialogue with Pakistan is that Pakistan should stop inflicting terrorism on India. Pakistan has not taken any serious action against the terrorist outfits supported by it. On the contrary, cross-border attacks from Pakistan against Indian civilians and security forces are continuing and have increased in the Jammu region in recent months”, Sajjanhar said, adding, “It is certain that the Indian delegation under Jaishankar’s leadership will participate actively in the HOG Summit in Islamabad”.
Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs expert, Sushant Sareen emphasised the importance of India being represented at international organisations, stating that it would be unwise to give a walkover to other countries by not sending a representative.
“Although India's External Affairs Minister is representing the country, it has been made clear that there are no plans for a bilateral meeting with Pakistan. This decision reflects the current state of relations, which have shown no positive developments in recent months”, he told ETV Bharat.
Sareen expressed scepticism about the possibility of improving relations, noting that there are no indications of progress. He highlighted the persistently negative political rhetoric and cited an example of baseless accusations made by a Pakistani minister regarding India's intentions at the SCO summit.
Considering such statements, Sareen believes that the likelihood of any positive developments is extremely low unless an unexpected event leads to a change in the situation. He emphasised that India's participation in the SCO meeting is important as a member of the organisation. He further noted that several other countries are not sending their heads of government, highlighting the significance of India's presence at the summit.
In 2023, India hosted the SCO Summit virtually, which was attended by Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Setting an example, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari visited India in May 2023 to attend the SCO Foreign Minister's meeting in Goa--a first by any Pakistani Foreign Minister in 12 years--though Indian and Pakistani Foreign Ministers met on the sidelines, no bilateral talks were held.
As a full member since 2017, India has engaged with SCO countries on various issues, including regional security, counterterrorism, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.
PM Modi couldn't attend the SCO Heads of State Summit in Kazakhstan on July 4, 2024, due to his commitment to the first Parliament Session after being re-elected for a third consecutive term. The Commerce Secretary recently represented the Commerce Minister in a virtual participation at a meeting of the Commerce Ministers of SCO countries, which was hosted by Pakistan in September 2024.
Dr Harsh Pant, Vice-President of the Observer Research Foundation, said, “By participating at the SCO meet in Islamabad, India is sending out a clear message that it remains committed to its engagement in the SCO. SCO is a regional organisation that focuses on Central Asia. Central Asia is a very important geography for India. And India doesn't want to be seen as an impediment in the way of SCO member states working together to achieve a regional outcome. It makes sense for India to have its Foreign Minister present in those conversations.
“This engagement is neither about the India-Pakistan relationship nor about the India-China relationship. This participation of the Indian Foreign Minister is largely to be seen in the broader context of why it is important for India not to alienate its SCO partners. And I think that is the main message of this visit by Jaishankar”, said Pant.
“In some ways, there is always a possibility that there can be some conversations on the sidelines of the SCO as far as India-Pakistan are concerned. But, in the short to medium term, there is hardly any expectation that any dramatic revival of India-Pakistan ties is concerned. However, in the long term, certainly, it might open some doors. Most likely, that is not the priority for the government at this point. It seems the priority is to participate in a regional platform like the SCO to engage with its regional partners in Central Asia. Bilaterally, with Pakistan, much should not be expected”, he pointed out.
The revocation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir led to significant political unrest in the region, including increased security measures, curfews and a communication blackout. Pakistan strongly condemned the move, viewing it as an illegal annexation. It sought international support to raise the issue in various forums, including the United Nations. The abrogation heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to a deterioration in diplomatic relations and a resurgence of military confrontations along the Line of Control (LoC). The issue of Kashmir remains a flashpoint in South Asia. Pakistan continues to advocate for Kashmir's self-determination, while India maintains that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of the country.
Read more:"Not Going to Discuss India-Pakistan Relations": Jaishankar on His Upcoming Islamabad Visit for SCO Summit
