Doval-Yi Meet: Despite Rhetoric, India-China LAC Situation Likely To Remain Sub-Optimal, Says Expert

The meeting between Ajit Doval and Wang Yi was the first meeting of SRs since friction erupted along the LAC in 2020.

New Delhi:A welcome shift in India-China diplomacy, which has set the tone for a Dragon-Elephant tango, is ushering in a new era in the dynamic and ever-changing geopolitics. Amid the apprehension despite troops' pullout, efforts by both the South Asian giants to make peace became a topic of interest and amicable parleys are no better way to end the hectic year of global diplomacy.

India and China held the 23rd Meeting of the Special Representatives (SRs) led by India’s Ajit Doval, National Security Advisor of India, and Wang Yi, Member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, on 18 December. This was the first meeting of the SRs since frictions had emerged in the Western Sector of the India-China border areas in 2020. The SRs positively affirmed the implementation of the latest disengagement agreement of October 2024, resulting in patrolling and grazing in relevant areas.

Now, the question remains: could this lead to de-escalation at the LAC? One of the experts in conversation with ETV Bharat said de-escalation is not happening any time soon. There is no reason that the Chinese must proceed with de-escalation now that the Indians have compromised and decided to reopen the economy to China.

Jabin T. Jacob, associate professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies Director, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar University, Delhi said, “Despite the rhetoric, the two sides have very different understandings of what the lessons of the standoff are. For India, persistence paid off in the end. For China, it is up to them to change the situation on the ground as and when they like it - whether escalating a situation or de-escalating it. China probably got it more correct than India. I don’t think de-escalation is coming any time soon. There is no reason that the Chinese must proceed with de-escalation now that the Indians have compromised and decided to reopen the economy to China”.

The expert mentioned that the political relations between India and China, as well as the situation at the LAC, are likely to remain suboptimal for the foreseeable future. He emphasised that there is a lack of mutual trust between the two nations. During the dialogue, India and China have constructively acknowledged the positive outcomes of their disengagement agreement at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Throughout their discussions, Doval and Wang stressed the importance of learning from the four-year military standoff at the LAC to foster peace and stability along the border.

They also identified opportunities to rebuild and strengthen their bilateral ties, which had been impacted by these tensions. Their talks laid the groundwork for positive directions in cross-border collaboration, including the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage from India to Tibet, improved data sharing on trans-border rivers, and enhanced border trade, all of which promise to benefit both nations.

Meanwhile, India’s former ambassador, Anil Trigunayat said, “After the meeting between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping, two countries agreed to revive the SR mechanism which essentially focuses on border issues and stability. Accordingly, the two SRs met in Beijing and agreed to continue with the modalities of ongoing de-escalation, disengagement and border patrol status quo. Resolving the border issue at LAC is a complex one. The 23rd meeting of NSA Ajit Doval and FM/SR Wang Yi reinforces that the two sides realised the need to smoothen ties. But it appears the Chinese are somewhat serious however proof of the pudding lies in eating “.

The SRs reiterated the importance of maintaining a political perspective of the overall bilateral relationship while seeking a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable framework for the settlement of the boundary question and resolved to inject more vitality into this process. The bilateral trade between India and China has seen remarkable growth, exceeding $113.83 billion in FY23 and marking the third consecutive year of surpassing the $100 billion milestone. Over the past decade, this trade relationship has quadrupled, highlighting its increasing significance.

In light of this expanding economic partnership, numerous Indian companies are taking proactive steps to establish operations in China, effectively bridging the gap between their Indian base and multinational clientele in the Chinese market. Simultaneously, more than 100 Chinese enterprises have recognised the potential in India and have set up offices and operations here. Major Chinese players in machinery and infrastructure have successfully secured projects in India, establishing a robust presence.

China has solidified its role as India's primary trading partner in recent years. This economic collaboration is essential in the broader context of global economic dynamics. India is committed to fostering a more balanced trade relationship by addressing non-tariff barriers that hinder Indian exports to China.